Optimize battery storage by predicting power output

Case study – Short term solar irradiance predictions and impact on PV site revenue

This case study summarises the work completed in an InnovateUK collaborative research project to optimize battery storage at PV sites using short term solar irradiance predictions. As a result of this work, the project delivered the following outcomes.

  • Deliver solar irradiance predictions for the next 2 hours at 15 minute intervals using the latest satellite imagery
  • Understand the relationship between solar irradiance and inverter output power
  • Model how short term solar power and solar irradiance predictions can increase revenue from Demand Side Response (DSR) schemes
  • Use this data to optimize battery storage
  • Quantify the financial benefits and the break even point in terms of site of PV site
  • The project uses near real time satellite imagery to predict the path of clouds and to predict the solar irradiance at any location for the next 2 hours at 15 minute increments. Therefore, by predicting the solar irradiance we can predict the solar power output for the site and optimize battery storage and increase revenue from the National Grid’s Demand Side Response programme.

    The Project found that PV sites larger than 2MW would benefit from this technology and it is especially coct effective for sites operating ‘behind the meter’ with either battery storage or with on-site demand.

    The project finished in December 2018 and was built using the Meniscus Analytics Platform (MAP).

    Project partners:

  • Meniscus Systems Ltd: Lead Partner providing the data analytics and processing capability to deliver solar irradiance predictions
  • Open Energi: Providing expertise to deliver accurate, real-time PV-based DSR solutions to DNOs and owner/operators of solar farms
  • BRE National Solar Centre: Responsible for ensuring the system meets the requirements of the PV industry. Providing domain expertise and access/advice on technical solar issues.
  • Cornwall Council: Owner/operator of one of the solar farms used to test and demonstrate the system
  • MAP Solar – new service predicts solar power and irradiance at any location

    MAP SOLAR is our new service to predict solar power and irradiance. This is ideal for companies wanting to optimize on-site battery use or improve the management of micro-grids.

    Overview

    MAP Solar applies Artificial Intelligence and a Block Matching and Relaxation algorithm to the latest satellite imagery to predict the path of clouds. So, for any location in the UK, we can predict solar power and solar irradiance and help you maximise revenue from your solar PV sites.

  • Increase revenue by optimizing on-site battery storage – predict the peaks and troughs in site power use.
  • Combines the latest satellite images with an AI algorithm to predict cloud movement
  • Use the irradiance data to predict power output from your PV installation. The model takes current rainfall into account to improve accuracy between the predicted and actual solar irradiance values.
  • Calculates cloud cover and applies this to a Clear Sky solar irradiance model to calculate diffuse, direct and combined in-plane solar irradiance.
  • Satellite images are updated every 15 minutes and we predict solar irradiance for the next two hours at 15 minute intervals
  • Get solar irradiance predictions for any location in the UK. Available from dashboard or our API
  • Actual and Predicted power (kW) compared with actual irradiance data (W/m2)




    For more information then view our MAP Solar solution page or Send us a message or give us a call on 01480 433714.

    Partners

    This was funded under an InnovateUK Collaborative Project. Our partners are:

    Lead Partner providing the data analytics and processing capability to deliver solar intensity predictions. All predictive analytics are delivered using the Meniscus Analytics Platform (MAP).




    Energy tech partner providing expertise to deliver accurate, real-time PV-based Demand Side Response solutions to Distribution Network Operators and owner/operators of solar farms to more efficiently manage local networks and generate income.


    BRE – National Solar Centre is responsible for ensuring the system meets the requirements of the PV industry and providing domain expertise and access/advice on technical solar issues.


    Owner of one of the solar farms used to test and demonstrate the system.

    InnovateUK project to deliver solar intensity predictions

    This project uses near real time satellite imagery to create short term predictions of output from PV farms to help optimise revenues for sites having battery storage